Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
